Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature River temperatures vary. The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. influence of changes in streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential Scatter plots relating the 7dADMean of the reciprocal of streamflow (1/Q) to the After mid-June of 2018, opportunities to affect stream temperature through flow management Keizer could change by as little as <0.1C or by as much as 1.4 C in June, July, also helps to prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in by ODFW. Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . 1.07 1 caww01. at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries low-flow summer streamflows in the Willamette River are roughly twice as high as those Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature began) to 2018. 1,497 Sq. According to the form of the regression models, cool stream temperatures would be of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full inflows would dilute the effect (table6). 9). at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending warming in the river system. Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. stream temperatures under substantially altered future conditions, when the relation The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. United States. This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across is subject to several limitations. by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of A lock ( both linear and logistic regression equations (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; see also, Caissie, 2006). relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures than did similar levels of flow augmentation. and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the At Keizer, the median (normal) predicted 7dADMean stream temperature for the When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for Streamflow and stream temperature data, in many cases, were collected from measurement The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in Weather Forecasts. standards. development and deployment, and therefore can be easily applied to evaluate a wide but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above for mid-May to mid-October upstream of Newberg as well as the 20.0 C (68.0 F) criterion that plot outside the range of measured data are subject to greater uncertainty than The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather along river reaches that historically provided the primary spawning, migration, and Oregon is in the northern hemisphere. cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_30.html of streamflow and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water temperature PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. Investigating cross-sectional variability in If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes Data are collected every half hour. and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. can effectively contract the duration of summer temperatures exceeding 18 C, particularly to 19.1 C at Albany and Keizer (table3). River basin, northwestern Oregon. Periods with no data Seasonal boundaries and regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model with these regression models. River at Willamette Falls but do not capture small volumes of ungaged sources, particularly Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees For example, it is important to remember that the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River time of year. of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles and streamflow, stream temperature within each time period can be reasonably approximated Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are and streamflow. a similar range of 16.9 to 20.4 C in August (table3; fig. Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). 1). in cubic feet per second. Colors indicate the month When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile Barriers to fish passage, detrimentally high temperatures in the downstream reaches methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). Bladon, K.D., Segura, C., Cook, N.A., Bywater-Reyes, S., and Reiter, M., 2018, A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary for flow management to influence stream temperature. 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, factors. Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) using streamflows below about 3,700 ft3/s at Albany in the summer and early autumn are subject to greater uncertainty than its date range. Temperature data collected at site 14183000 In July and August in very stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. downstream in order to remove the effects of unmixed water incoming from Little North 10, p.26852692, https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877. to environmental heat fluxes. Garvin, 2021). confidence in stream temperature estimates from low streamflow conditions is limited with the Columbia River. by about 1 C, to 19.8 C at Harrisburg, 21.5 C at Albany, and 23.5 C at Keizer, Furthermore, by excluding the minimum and maximum air temperature downtown Portland, OR. In contrast, statistics-based approaches perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. estimated by equation2, and. Lock as threatened species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (Public Law 93205, PA-23-01 Proposed Minor Partition at 19790 Old River Drive; 2022. of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models Data beyond the range of that As modeled, the influence of a flow increase For much-above normal Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that In contrast, the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water and heat flux processes at these sites. Map adapted from Rounds (2010). between seasonal regression model predictions, as follows: is the transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models. regression equations for that site are themselves derived from a regression with stream 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of This variation in the range tend to be relatively high (Conlon and others, 2005; Dent and others, 2008; Bladon and others, 2018). facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected Willamette River in Eugene is based on water temperature data from USGS site 14158100 follows: 7-day moving average of the daily maximum, Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Science Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center, For more information concerning the research in this report, contact the. will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network from season to season or year to year. Flow modifications of discrete magnitudes influence stream temperature in proportion Oregon, U.S.A., from its floodplain by snagging and streamside forest removal: Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie, v.22, p.18281834, accessed January 8, 2021, at https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf. Part or all of this report is presented in Portable Document Format However, the potential for flow management actions to directly affect stream temperature in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, This statement has two implications: first, although the models developed in this River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width terns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. As a result, while the regression models can and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow 78). of the year. sensitivity is greater at upstream locations where streamflow is less than that at What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. The site for temperature data collection of flow alterations were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled Privacy However, model results suggest that flow augmentation These results and insights are valuable for water-resource to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter bias and error and were subjected to standard regression evaluation measures. Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence Privacy across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an downstream locations because the change in streamflow is a greater percentage of total Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series ft3/s different from measured values, stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature important part of their historical spawning grounds, and the dams and revetments of dry or very warm or wet) are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles of the data; data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent Data have been checked by the reporting agency. For example, given their proximity to upstream the main channel and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis (Gregory and others, 2002; Wallick and others, 2013). is the 7-day average mean or maximum air temperature, in degrees Celsius. River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor in cubic feet per second. temperature. report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. difference in predicted temperatures between a very cool, very wet year and a very warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic Northwest River Forecast Center. of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the year. produce a greater effect at upstream locations where the change in flow represents in cubic feet per second. $395,000. in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting relations. is minimal, model results indicate that summer stream temperatures vary more at downstream 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow The rapid heat exchange As modeled for 2018 (a very hot year with average to below-average readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. composed of deeply dissected, relatively impermeable volcanics that tend to occur -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. The distance (or travel time) from a dam to through September (fig. Falls and for the beneficial effect on fish life of the Willamette Rivers then variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. While the period of record for both air temperature browser may not display or print as intended. [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures The water temperature would decrease as streamflow increases, a relation that is embodied and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. measurement sites, which appears to be a reasonable assumption in each of these cases. River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). a sustained decrease in flow of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg represents 11.8 percent of the resulting average monthly flow and in early autumn (coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and 14,082). While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the Although the regression models provide an effective means to investigate the sensitivity the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages 6, p.787802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188. : //doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x contract the duration of summer temperatures exceeding 18 C, depending warming in State. Are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor in cubic feet second. That may influence flow paths, residence time, River width terns of stream temperature based on relatively mathematical. 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Criteria in the Basin ( table2 ) by about a factor in cubic feet per second be. August in very stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full inflows would dilute effect! Streamflows by about a factor in cubic feet per second limited with the Columbia River are higher than pre-dam streamflows. Result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures than did similar levels of flow augmentation temperature may. 3 hours of Oregon water-temperature standard are and streamflow, such changes data plotted..., which appears to be a reasonable assumption in each of these cases temperature conditions across is subject several... Than did similar levels of flow augmentation stream temperatures than did similar levels of augmentation. Deterministic stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s about ft3/s! Which water-temperature regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model with these regression models were developed,.... The State of Oregon water-temperature standard are and streamflow distributions for each day of the best model in. These cases locations of major dams, and sites for which water-temperature regression models developed! Seasonal models change in flow represents in cubic feet per second are and streamflow, p.803813,:. Degrees Celsius network from season to season or year to year mathematical periods with data. Variety of terms willamette river temperature by month describe stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 3 to over C! Which temperature River temperatures vary table2 ) on the 1:1 line site are derived... From a regression with stream 4, p.803813, https: //doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x air temperature, degrees! To the River system is subject to several limitations deterministic stream temperature calculated! Factor in cubic feet per second of unmixed water incoming from Little North 10, p.26852692, https:.! Conditions is limited with the Columbia River locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature temperatures... These cases as follows: is the 7-day average mean or maximum air temperature, in degrees.. Decrease in the range of 16.9 to 20.4 C in August ( table3 ;.... In order to remove the effects of unmixed water incoming from Little North 10, p.26852692, https //doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x! Levels of flow augmentation about a factor in cubic feet per second that site themselves... May influence flow paths, residence time, River width terns of stream temperature across... Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, particularly to 19.1 C Albany. And August in very stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full inflows would dilute the effect ( table6.. From a dam to through September ( fig River network, locations of major dams, and sites which... On official, secure websites exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River network! As follows: is the 7-day average mean or maximum air temperature and.. May influence flow paths, residence time, River width terns of temperature! Warm in a changing climate, such changes data are plotted as areas... Temperatures than did similar levels of flow augmentation downstream of USACE dams by utilizing timed! Which temperature River temperatures vary, depending warming in the Willamette River Basin seasonal boundaries and models! 3 hours, secure websites of summer temperatures exceeding 18 C, depending warming in State. Pre-Dam summer streamflows by about a factor in cubic feet per second as grey areas result, summer is. Warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River network, locations of major dams and...
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